PARLIAMENT QUESTION: IMPACT OF EL NINO ON INDIAN MONSOON

Why in news

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted the development of El Nino conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, with conditions intensifying from weak to moderate and potentially reaching a very strong category later in the year. This information was provided in response to a Parliament Question.

Exam relevance

GS1, GS3 · Geography, Environment & Ecology · Prelims · Mains

Key facts

1. There is no officially defined category known as a "Super El Nino" by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) or the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
2. El Nino events are generally classified as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong based on the magnitude of sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean.
3. IMD has predicted the development of El Nino conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season.
4. El Nino conditions were weak during June 2026 and intensified to moderate levels in July 2026.
5. El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October–December 2026 season and may reach a very strong category.
6. The exact intensity and impacts of El Nino over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor.
7. IMD continuously monitors the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and issues regular seasonal and monthly forecasts and advisories.
8. IMD issues Impact-Based Forecasts (IBFs) and risk-based advisories to Central and State Governments and other stakeholders.

Prelims pointers

• Official classification of El Nino events (weak, moderate, strong, very strong).
• Basis for El Nino classification (sea surface temperature anomalies, equatorial central Pacific Ocean).
• Organizations that do not officially define 'Super El Nino' (WMO, IMD).
• Role of IMD in monitoring El Nino and issuing forecasts (seasonal, monthly, extended-range, impact-based, risk-based).
• Relationship between El Nino and the Indian southwest monsoon.

Mains practice question

Discuss the potential impacts of a strengthening El Nino on the Indian monsoon and its implications for various sectors of the Indian economy. How does the India Meteorological Department contribute to mitigating these impacts through its forecasting mechanisms?

Static linkage

El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the warm phase of the larger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. El Nino can have significant impacts on weather patterns worldwide, including affecting the Indian monsoon, often leading to reduced rainfall.

Significance

The prediction and continuous monitoring of El Nino by IMD are crucial for India, given the significant impact of the monsoon on the country's agriculture, economy, and water resources. Accurate forecasts enable governments and stakeholders to prepare for potential drought-like conditions or altered rainfall patterns, facilitating proactive measures in disaster management, agricultural planning, and water resource allocation. The absence of an official 'Super El Nino' category highlights the importance of adhering to standardized scientific classifications for effective communication and policy formulation.