Parliament Question: Long Range Forecast System

Why in news

The article discusses the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) adoption of an advanced Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach for long-range forecasting since 2021, highlighting its improved accuracy, particularly for monsoon forecasts.

Exam relevance

GS3 · Economy, Environment & Ecology, Science & Technology · Prelims · Mains

Key facts

1. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) adopted an advanced Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach for long-range forecasting in 2021.
2. This MME approach has significantly improved the accuracy of long-range forecasts.
3. Operational monsoon forecasts since 2021 have remained within error limits.
4. The average absolute error of monsoon forecasts from 2021-2025 was 2.2% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
5. Over the last ten years, the forecast error exceeded 10% of the LPA only once, in 2019, with an absolute error of 14% of the LPA.

Prelims pointers

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) uses a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach for long-range forecasting.
• MME approach was adopted by IMD in 2021.
• Monsoon forecasts are measured against the Long Period Average (LPA).
• Forecast error exceeding 10% of LPA occurred only once in the last ten years (2015-2024), in 2019.

Mains practice question

Discuss the significance of accurate long-range weather forecasting for the Indian economy and critically evaluate the improvements made by the India Meteorological Department in its forecasting systems.

Static linkage

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the primary agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasts, and warnings in India. Its long-range forecasts, especially for the monsoon, are crucial for the Indian economy, which is heavily reliant on agriculture.

Significance

Accurate long-range weather forecasts are vital for agricultural planning, water resource management, disaster preparedness, and overall economic stability in India. The improvement in IMD's forecasting accuracy through the MME approach signifies a step towards more reliable climate predictions, enabling better decision-making for various sectors.